What's the deal with "guaranteed hit" hot packs?

I've said I was done with 2014 Archives after lackluster results with a hobby box and a retail jumbo pack. But a stumbled upon an "Auto/Relic/Printing Plate JUMBO HOT PACK" at a reasonable Buy It Now price and a Best Offer option. I caved and made an offer a few bucks lower than the BIN, and later that night, it was accepted. Don't jumbo packs normally sell for like $6 or $7? So an extra 3 or 4 bucks for a guaranteed hit didn't seem so bad. Maybe I'll get lucky and get a printing plate of somebody cool. But even a Mark Lemke auto would be fine, I suppose.

Guaranteed hit!!
- fan favorite or Major League auto/autograph
- relic/jersey card
- printing plate 1/1

..is what the auction said. I don't recall ever reading about "guaranteed hit" packs on the blogosphere, though I see them on eBay a lot. This is the first one I've bought.

So what's their deal? How do the sellers know, and how do they find them? Pack searching? Process of elimination while breaking a guaranteed-hit box? Seems shady to me, especially as someone who's never pulled a big odds-defying hit in his life.

So yeah, shed some light in the comments if you can. Hopefully I'm not supporting the nefarious activity of pack searching, but it's gonna happen either way, I suppose. Topps should really work on using more search-resistant packaging. I gotta admit I don't know much about pack searching and the techniques used. But, at least with Archives, aren't most of the hits the same thickness as a typical card? I'm not sure what the "tell" would be besides thickness.

As an aside, I recently realized Graig Nettles has a ton of cards in 2014 Archives. Seriously.. deckle edge, hockey design, all-star insert, firebrand, an auto, and an SP. WTF? Nettles-mania over there at Topps HQ. I kinda like Nettles, thanks mainly to being a part of the pennant-winning Padres of '84 (and I just now learned he's a native San Diegan like myself and went to my alma mater, SDSU), but I still think Topps should mix it up with their selection of retired players. Are there any "super fans" of Graig Nettles out there? I haven't come across any. Solid player, but nobody's really campaigning to get him to Cooperstown. Seems like Topps is just cramming in yet another Yankee (semi)great. You wouldn't have to think very hard to come up with another retired player Topps should have used instead. Throwing Nettles into a checklist here and there every few years is cool n' all, but it's ridiculous how he's just all over Archives this year. Jamming somebody hot like Puig or Trout into every insert set is at least understandable, but a lifetime .248 hitter from decades ago simply doesn't make any sense to give that treatment.

Hopefully this little rant didn't jinx my guaranteed hit to be a Graig Nettles card, but that'd be funny. As I draft this post up to this point, I haven't seen the jumbo pack in question yet, but the tracking number tells me it's waiting in my mailbox.

[...]

And we're back. Ready to rip it? Let's see if it delivers a hit as promised.

There don't seem to be any tiny rips in the packaging or anything like that.

Cue sad trombone...

Damn it, Archives, you burned me again! Yes, there's technically a hit there-- and as a thick relic, it's no wonder how the seller was able to identify it-- but definitely near the bottom of possible hits to pull. Would you expect anything else? Oh well, I'll never learn.

At least I got a Ted Williams dupe that I could send to Mark Hoyle if he still needs it. And if anybody wants the Desmond Jennings relic, it's very available in trade, so let me know.

And at least I beat the odds and didn't get any Graig Nettles cards.

Flip The Bip contest!

Hot on the heels of my last big contest, here's another chance to win.

[7/10 update: the contest is now closed. Thanks to everybody for playing.]

My Bip Roberts rainbow chase is looking good (essentially completed, if we're not being too strict about it) and I've gotten a few different parallels of his 2014 Archives auto. I didn't pick a great first card to rainbow (yes, the word "rainbow" is a verb now.) The card uses the 1990 Topps design, and the parallels don't mess with the border, for whatever stupid reason, rather just tweak the tint of the background of the photo.. and since the background is already dark in this photo, it doesn't make for a very pronounced difference. They aren't even refractors or anything cool like that.

Whatever. I thought it would make a fun little contest to see if people can identify the relative scarcity of these cards.

Here we have 6 different versions of the card.

To enter the contest, just leave a comment on this post with the order of least-to-most scarce (i.e., the base card would be first, followed by the most-abundant parallel, through to the least-abundant.) So your comment should be just the 6 letters in your selected order (and a 2-digit tiebreaker number*), plus an optional comment along the lines of "Thanks for this awesome contest! Your blog rules, dude!"

*Assuming there are multiple correct guesses, everyone who answered correctly will then have their tiebreaker numbers come into play. This number will be the sum total of the serial numbers (numerators; For example 4/25 = 4). Closest without going over wins. If multiple people guess the same number, whoever guessed it first gets it, so be sure to pick an unclaimed number. And if there are no correct A-F guesses, then the tiebreaker number will determine the winner. Here's a hint, it'll mathematically be between 5 and 91.

The prize: You'll get Bipped. Ok, and you can also pick a remaining lot from the big grand prize pool. 

Refresh yourself of these lots here and here. Only Lot F (the Mets-centric lot) is now off the table, as it was claimed in the last contest. Sorry, Max, last week's winner, but you're not eligible to play Flip The Bip.. We gotta try spreading around the prizes. And by the way, this is not the "second chance" contest I was talking about earlier. That's actually going to happen as soon as this little game is over. So I suppose it'll be more like a "third chance" contest.

Only your first guess will count. I'll give a few days to let people get their guesses in, then I'll close the contest and Flip The Bip and we'll take a look at the serial numbers on the back in a forthcoming post. Thanks and good luck!

Now post your guess in the comments below to enter. Again, we're looking for the 6 letters (A thru F) in ascending order of scarcity, and a 2-digit tiebreaker number. Good luck!

A swinging strikeout with Archives

I'm in the middle of Week One of my 3-week Summer Sabbatical 'Stravaganza. It's going pretty good so far. Today I went to Target, picked up the wedding bands from a jewelry store in an Asian mall, then took a little hike with the pooch. Tomorrow I've got a dentist appointment and will try to squeeze in an oil change. Go me; being productive and non-lazy with my time off!

But this is a baseball card blog, so enough boring personal details. At Target I bought a couple t-shirts and a sweatshirt (all on clearance, of course), and used my buck-off coupon on an Archives jumbo pack. I figured I was due something cool after my snorer of a hobby box, right?

Nah, the jumbo pack was a dud, too. Some decent base cards (Bryce, Gwynn, Wacha) and a Kershaw AS insert. That's it. I won't even bore you with pictures. Yawn. Darn you, Topps! That does it for me this year as far as new product. Enjoy your Series II, A&G, Update, n' whatever. Topps will have to wait until 2015 to get any more of my money.. directly, at least.

So this is a non-post today. Just checking in, really. I will say that I've been working up a couple fun contests for the blog this month. Stay tuned for those.

Speaking of contests, Too Many Verlanders is cranking the generosity up to eleven with an awesome giveaway/contest, so don't be shy, head over and claim a couple remaining lots while you still can.

Oh, trade update: I was able to secure that Bip printing plate from ARPSmith today. (Took a while because he was traveling and stuff.) With that trade agreed upon, I'll now round up some PWEs for the other digital-handshake deals brought up in my Archives trade bait post comments a week or so ago. If you wanna swing a trade with me, now's the time to do it while I've got some time on my hands, because next week is Hawaii, then the week after that I'll have a bunch of family in town for the reception party back home. It's gonna be a hectic 2nd-half of the month, for sure. Fun, though.

Well, thanks for reading and take care.

"No Purchase Necessary" hits?

As I was grabbing my empty 2014 Archives box to toss it in the recycle bin-- and by the way, reading about other bloggers' luck with their hobby boxes in the past week or so has made me realize just what a freaking dud my box was [*seething*]-- I noticed some text on the bottom about entering for a chance to win cards by sending Topps a note card with your address.

I guess this is somewhat standard these days, huh? Have any of you guys entered something like this before, and if so did you ever get anything? I'm thinking Topps owes me some karma from my flunky of a box, so I might go ahead and burn a Forever on sending them out an envelope.

I would assume they do this offer for legal reasons, perhaps to appease some random state laws, or maybe there's a tax break in there somewhere. Or maybe they just want to be nice?

Here's the text:

The best part is the end about Canadians needing to answer a math question. WTF?! LOL. Topps screwing with Canadians. Hilarious. I'm surprised they didn't add a part about Guam residents needing to enclose a photo of their sister.

I'm pretty bad at doing math in my head, but I was able to summon the power of mental thinking and I'm pretty sure I deduced the correct answer without succumbing to using a calculator. But since I'm American, I guess it's a moot point. USA! USA!

Two Terrific Trade Times Thanks To Tony, Then Tom (There's Two TTMs, Too)

..Sorry, I was going for the record of longest blog title using only T-words.

Got some neat trade packages in the past week or so. Let's take a look at what I got!

Tony L. sent me a sweet PWE which was way better than the few Brewers I sent him a week or two before, but he justified that by calling it a wedding present, which I will happily accept and say thank you from me and my bride (no, she doesn't really get baseball cards, but is cool with my hobby as long as I don't spend too much money on it.)

A fine selection of '14 Bowman Padres. Some nice cards here. But check this out:

A couple of Tony's TTM successes from the 80s! Padre greats Dick Williams and Steve Garvey. Very nice! I showed off my Dick Williams PC recently, including a sweet A's auto, but it's great to have a Padrograph of him now, too. And this is my first-ever Garvey auto, so that's pretty cool, even with his ballpoint pen signature sort of lost in the mix.

P-town Tom sent me some cards because I named a raccoon he caught (Fergie), oh and also because I sent him a couple Cubs cards recently.

Looks like Tom had some 73 Cubs dupes. I'll happily give em a good home in my fledgling set-build. I also just got a few cheap singles from a Sportlots order. I haven't had a chance to update my 73 needslist with these acquisitions yet, but will get to it this weekend. I should be approaching 60% complete at this point; not bad.

Tom also kindly contributed a drop in my Marquis Mania bucket!

Yes, this is the actual card he sent, though I'm thinking I should start using a "stock" photo of this card to save time in the future. I also got a bunch more copies of this card in the aforementioned Sportlots order, but I'll save the update on that goal for another time.
More cards:

Here are some cards of guys I collect. Great stuff! Thanks, Tom!

Following up on something I was bitching about last time, let's compare the back of that triumphant 2013 Archives Gwynn up there to the shameful 2014 Archives Gwynn back.

This year (on the right) Topps wiped away the last few years of his career. boo!!! The truncated stats thing doesn't seem to bug most people as much as it does me, but it's definitely a major knock against 2014 Archives in my eyes. Your card back is a lie, Topps.
I also just noticed they took off the italics on league leading stats this year.. lame!! It seems Topps just keeps getting lazier and lazier with each product that they put out. Hopefully they hire a real baseball card fan or two sometime soon who can help right that ship. They need somebody on staff to say obvious stuff like, "Hey guys, we've already used this picture recently; let's pick a different one."

Anyways, big thanks to Tony L. and Tom for the excellent additions to my collection!

2014 Archives box epilogue and trade bait

Thanks to everybody who checked out the 2014 Archives hobby box break saga I posted here over the weekend. Lots of nice comments.. Glad you guys enjoyed it! I realize you probably need to be in your 30s to fully appreciate the nostalgia of 80s toys, but hopefully you older and younger guys still got a kick out of it.

It was a lot of fun. I can see me doing this again sometime.. perhaps when 2015 Archives comes out. I've got a big cooler full of old toys, over half of which are remnants from my childhood, held onto all these years, with the rest being additions over the years as a "collector". Sure has been a long time since I played with my toys, so that break was a great excuse to be a kid again. And thanks again to Zippy Zappy for the inspiration of crossing toys with cards for entertaining results.

If you missed  the 4-part series, start at the first part, then click "Newer Post" on the bottom of each post to go to the next one.

While it was a fun break, overall the box was a disappointment. $90 for what amounted to about $20 worth of cards were I to sell them. So while it was fun, it probably wasn't 70 bucks' worth of fun. Thems the breaks. The 2 guaranteed autos were both "commons" worth $5 each if you're lucky. No rare parallels or printing plates or things of that nature. Everybody calls me "the Hitless Wonder" behind my back for a reason (well, they should if they don't). Every time I buy new product it ends up feeling like I went to Vegas and lost big. But I never learn, because it's a fun rush. Who knows.. maybe someday I'll pull a good hit. Of course I'm not in this to get rich, but it's nice to get value from packs that at least approaches what you paid.

So that's probably why the last episode of the break took a relatively dark turn. Had I pulled a Clemente printing plate or something, it all probably would have ended with a galactic celebration.
But enough of my whining.

Random observations from the set:

• Topps seems to have "forgiven" McGwire and Sosa, giving them base cards. Plus Canseco has an SP and auto in the set. I think 2014 is the first time in several years that Topps has put out a new card of these 3 big PED-tainted guys. Juan Gonzales is in there, too. Could Bonds and Palmeiro be around the corner? (Edit: Palmeiro has popped up in a few sets this year unbeknownst to me, leaving Bonds as the only blacklisted big-name at the moment.) Clemens isn't in 2014 Archives, but was in 2014 Museum Collection. Hmm. Another eyebrow-raising inclusion is Lenny Dykstra, who while an exciting player in his day, has built up a long list of run-ins with the law, and is currently in prison, I believe. No Pete Rose, though. Wouldn't it be fun if they snuck him in as a SSP?
• Speaking of notable absences, I know Topps milked Mickey Mantle for all he was worth in recent years, but it sucks they went cold turkey this past year or two. I hope they're able to "re-sign" him before too long. I don't need him in every Topps product, but something like Archives really misses him.
• I hate that the SPs now use the same designs as base cards. It was much cooler before, when the SPs were relatively-fresh designs to spice up a pack.
• Topps also got lazy and cut off the career stats of old-timers who played a lot of years (rather than shrink the font size down to fit them all). I hate that. I like full career stats! If I were to rename my blog, I'd probably call it Full Stats On Back or maybe The Hitless Wonder or Thems The Breaks.
• It's a bummer for me that my guy Bip Roberts doesn't have a non-auto card in the set. I would have probably gone rainbow chasing if he did. Oh well, I'm still just happy he has an auto in the set. I'll probably go after all Bip's different auto parallels [*groan*] if the prices are ok. They are very similar, just with a subtle background tint as the difference.
• - Fan Favorites Autographs Gold Parallel #'d to 50
• - Fan Favorites Autographs Silver Parallel #'d to 25
• - Fan Favorites Autographs Purple Parallel #'d to 10
• - Fan Favorites Autographs Sapphire Parallel #'d to 5
• - Fan Favorites Autographs Ruby Red Parallel #'d 1/1
• - Fan Favorites Autographs Printing Plates #'d 1/1 x 4

On that point, I'm trying to work out a deal with ARPSmith for the magenta Bip printing plate he pulled. Assuming he doesn't decide to just put it on eBay, I will likely end up trading all my SPs and inserts to him for it (plus a few more cards for him). Leaving me with the few refractors I pulled, plus base cards, and the 2 autos. (It's probably taboo to post about a pending, yet-agreed-upon trade, isn't it? Anybody got any Giants hits they can donate to the cause? 3-way trade?)

I don't plan to collect/finish the set (I'll likely buy a hanger at Target to use my $1-off coupon, but that'll be it for me.) I debated if I wanted to hang onto the 1973 Topps design cards since that's a favorite of mine and I'm already working on the real 1973 set.. maybe I should work on a "super-master set" or whatever you call it when you collect a set and all reprints and retro cards with that design. But eh, that'd probably be overwhelming so I think I'll just be content with the vintage set and leave it at that.

So anyways, I'll pick out a few guys-I-collect to hang onto from my Archives haul, plus the autos probably (always kinda liked Pendleton and Eckstein), and the availability of the SPs and inserts depends if trade negotiations for the Bip plate fall through or not, but the vast majority of the base cards and parallels are available for trade. So if you saw anything in the break that caught your eye, just let me know if you want to work out a deal. Thanks.

some available highlights

Thrilling conclusion of 80s toys 2014 Archives break!

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
..in case you missed them.

This fourth and final installment finds the 6 remaining energy packets in the foul clutches of Jabba the Hutt in his palace on the desert planet Tatooine.

A mysterious cloaked figure and his droid demand an audience with Jabba.

"I am Luke Skywalker, Jedi Knight. Give me the energy packets, Jabba, or die."

"Hoo hoo wubba wubba joojoo zumba," Jabba booms in reply, teasing Luke by revealing the cache of packets.

Without warning, Jabba unleashes a pack against Luke.

It's a decent strike featuring a Major League insert.

Luke uses the force to summon a pack, and frees its contents.

Luke defends himself with a Dwight Gooden All-Star among others. The battle ends in a toss-up, but R2-D2 squirts some oil in Jabba's face, and he and Luke make a daring escape with the few remaining packets.

After finding Obi-Wan, Luke asks about the true nature of the packets.

"These are packs of baseball cards," Obi-Wan explains. "A long time from now in a galaxy far, far away, certain people buy, sell, and trade these objects as if they were some sort of crude currency. They each compile their own unique collections, much like Jawas and their womp rat farms."

"But why?!" asks Luke.

"Eh, just something to do, I guess."

Obi-Wan is suddenly interrupted by Cobra!

"The packetssss are ourssss now, old man! Prepare for an onssslaught of incredible ssstrength," hisses Cobra Commander.

Cobra Commander grabs a packet and attacks Obi-Wan.

A David Eckstein auto doesn't exactly knock Kenobi on his ass, but it'll be hard to top.

Knowing he's been beaten, Obi-Wan futilely defends himself with an Ellsbury SP and disappears into the force.

"BEN!!," cries Luke, falling to his knees in grief as Cobra absconds with the remaining two energy packets.

Cobra Commander knows the only thing stopping him from galactic domination now is the Empire. He travels to the Death Star and meets with the Emperor and Darth Vader.

At first he acts like he wants to join the dark side of the force and rule side by side-- but being the sneaky snake he is, he grabs the first opportunity to attack with a packet. "SSSSSUCK IT!"

A /199 refractor of some dude on the Reds weakens Darth and the Emperor.

But with their last bit of strength, they call upon the final energy packet to defeat Cobra Commander.

The refraction of the Reds dude against a wooden Firebrand card of Wil Myers ignites and causes the Death Star to catch fire! The fire quickly spreads to the main power source, and soon warning sirens call for immediate evacuation. But it's too late. The end is near.

Only now seeing the error of their ways here in these final moments, Cobra and the Siths put aside their differences and share a tearful last embrace.

The End

Episode 3: I Love the 80s breaking 2014 Archives continues!

[We're halfway through the box. You should read part 1 first, then part 2, if you haven't yet. I should mention I'm just making this up as I go along and have not been "fixing" matches, if you're wondering.]

We last left our hero Luke Skywalker narrowly escaping from Dagobah with the mysterious energy pod. Before he sets off to find Obi-Wan-- the only person in the galaxy whom Luke believes could shed light on the nature of the pod-- he decides it will be safest somewhere the Empire would never look: in the hands of babies.

Muppet Babies, specifically. Luke tries to emphasize the great power the of this energy source, but the babies don't completely get it.

Luke reluctantly leaves the pod in the care of the Muppet Babies and heads off.

Kermie suggests going on an adventure in a haunted house. Against their better judgement, the rest of the gang goes along with it.

It's not long after they enter the spooky abandoned mansion that they encounter a g.. g.. g.. GHOST!!

Slimer yanks open an energy packet against them. A Kershaw All-Star insert packs a strong attack.

But the Muppet Babies return with a packet of their own.

The Dodger duel is won handedly thanks to a /99 refracting Duke and Billy Hamilton SP.

A visibly shaken Gonzo suggests the group get the hell out of the haunted house. The rest concur.

But just as Fozzie reaches to turn the doorknob to exit, a demonic skeleton jumps out at them!

The skeleton grabs a packet and lunges toward them with it.

His packet produces a Cano SP but the Muppet Babies don't panic.

Piggy rips open an energy packet to defend them against the evil skeleton.

A Cobra deckle decks the skeleton with a venomous punch, as the babies grab the pod and scram.

Frightened by two close calls, they decide the pod would be safer with someone more worldly than themselves. Scrooge McDuck is anxious to help out and offers to protect the pod.

But the greedy sumbitch he is, Scrooge harvests the remaining packets from the pod and adds them to his treasure pit.

"Like taking candy from a baby," Scrooge chuckles to himself.

"Not so fast, Duck!," a terrifying voice suddenly bellows. "I've heard about your recent acquisitions and I've come to take that which I desire."

General Spidrax, leader of the evil Sectaurs reveals himself, as his flying creature companion swoops in and opens a packet.

Boasting a Jose Bautista All-Star and base cards of Clemente and Rickey, the attack knocks Scrooge on his exposed bottom. He shakes his head vigorously to regain his senses as he gets up, then grabs a packet to return fire.

A powerful array of allies led by a Puig deckle are just enough to emerge victorious.

But it was too close for comfort, and Scrooge decides these packets aren't worth the danger that follows them. He decides to cash in and collect the bounty offered by Jabba the Hutt.

To be continued...

80s Adventure with 2014 Archives, Episode II

[Some 80s toys have been breaking my 2014 Topps Archives hobby box in a battle royale.] 

At the conclusion of Episode 1, the Decepticons had just taken the energy pod into deep space.

Episode 2 opens on the forest moon of Endor, where Soundwave has taken the energy pod to keep it safe while he ponders how to best harness its power for galactic domination.

Of course, if you're chillin' on Endor, you're gonna have Ewoks up in your shit before long!

An Ewok grabs an energy packet from the pod and uses it against a stunned Soundwave.

The medicine man Ewok quickly sprinkles a mystic concoction on the packet, summoning some big guns from within, lead by a Koufax All-Star.

Soundwave scrambles to grab a packet himself.

The Ewok just laughs in his annoying high-pitched way as Soundwave fumbles a weak showing behind a Graig Nettles deckle edge.

Soundwave transforms back into a walkman and plays a Smiths song to wallow in his defeated sadness.

The Ewok wiggles victoriously as he and his fellow Ewoks bring the pod to their friends back at the Ewok village as a gift of friendship.

But the feast and fireworks are interrupted by a Lego storm trooper who speeds in and lunges at a packet from the pod.

Leia and Chewbacca instantly release a packet against the Lego trooper.

A Major League insert and King Felix All-Star lead a potent charge.

A Wade Boggs SP nearly lands a direct hit but falls short, and the trooper explodes in a fiery death against a tree.

Chewy and Leia realize this pod possesses a power too great to be taken lightly, and radio Luke Skywalker for assistance.

Searching for answers, Luke takes the pod to the Dagobah system.

"How can I pull $ICK HIT$$$ from this box, Master Yoda?," asks Luke.

"The force, you must use," Yoda replies.

But what's this?!! Luke had been secretly followed by Boba Fett, who is after the bounty put on the pod by Jabba the Hutt.

Boba Fett flings a packet, unleashing a new type of power.. one not of this sport.

Luke stumbles to use the force while Yoda chokes on his snake.

While it might not be pretty, the Deion Sanders SP and his band of ragtag spitfires are just enough to blast Boba Fett into a nearby swamp where he is then eaten whole by a vicious swamp monster.

The battle was so close and intense that Yoda says goodbye and turns to dust moments later.

Luke freaks out, loads the pod into his spacecraft, and sets out to find the one man who could possibly help him.. his only hope.. Obi-Wan Kenobi.

To be continued...